tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12703782.post116129172656579842..comments2020-04-11T03:30:02.282-05:00Gary R. Welshhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15185079937305083438noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12703782.post-1161305126969770292006-10-19T19:45:00.000-05:002006-10-19T19:45:00.000-05:00Both sides had a fight in the 06 Congresisonal primary, 5:46...with lots of money and political shenannigans thrown around.<BR/><BR/>Baseline D-R vote is difficult, because it's shifting almost in front of our eyes.<BR/><BR/><BR/>A betting man would look at the surveyor's race in 2004: subtract that vote total from the races higher-up the ticket, the there's your independents, plus or minus a few.<BR/><BR/>Using that formula, you can probably get by with 42.5% Dem, 37-38% Repub, the rest unknown or undecided.<BR/><BR/>And in the past several elections, undecideds tend to trend ab out 3-2 Dem. For high profile races, anyway.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12703782.post-1161294611474494042006-10-19T16:50:00.000-05:002006-10-19T16:50:00.000-05:00Bad move AI to comment on Larrytown politics! Such a post will attract <I>trollerie</I> such as Larry, Daryl and his brother Darrell ... it's an inbred congerie up there !Wilson46201https://www.blogger.com/profile/06987859307032067229noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12703782.post-1161294388152757952006-10-19T16:46:00.000-05:002006-10-19T16:46:00.000-05:00Oh, one more thing, I think a poll in Marion County needs to be 40% D and 30% R. (Although I'm not sure where the baseline is now). But a few things are certaintly in Carson's favor:<BR/><BR/>2004 numbers, Ds carried everything in Marion County.<BR/><BR/>2006 primary, more Ds voted in the primary than Rs (despite a Congressional fight for the Rs and nothing for the Ds).<BR/><BR/>Sad to say, I don't see Carson taking a loss, probably a 5-6 point win.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12703782.post-1161294232271200152006-10-19T16:43:00.000-05:002006-10-19T16:43:00.000-05:00Gary, as much as I would like to agree with you, I just don't think the 7th CD is as close as you think. Sure, I'm sure a poll that had an inacurate sample (oversampling certain demographics, undersampling others) could be made to make the case the ED has already won, unfortunatly, I think the GOTV of the Ds and the Congresswoman will win it agian.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com