Comments on Advance Indiana™: Selzer Gloats Over Star Poll Results

Gary, your personal poll story was fascinating. B...

2007-11-13T14:14:00.000-05:00

Gary, your personal poll story was fascinating.

But over time, the good pollsters are usually right. Their techniques are time-honored and expensive. Woe is the politician who fails to listen to what pollsters say.

Not that politicians should blow in the wind...principles are to be held, for sure.

But Selzer used faulty methodology. And frankly, they predicted Peterson on top by a few...didn't he lose last week?

I wouldn't trust their results.

But I'll tell you this--I know for a fact, Bart was in the field at the exact same time as Selzer. He used trusted pollsters whow ere respected and expensive. Those poll results were never shared, not even with most council candidates.

I'm betting they showed Bart was in trouble, and not likely to win. If there were anything hopeful at all in those rresults, his campaign would've leaked it. They didn't. Mum was the word.

I believe they are, anon. 1:25. I've tried to bloc...

2007-11-13T13:31:00.000-05:00

I believe they are, anon. 1:25. I've tried to block out my memory of them.

ah yes, the infamous marriage between Chris Frevel...

2007-11-13T13:25:00.000-05:00

ah yes, the infamous marriage between Chris Freveletti and Gary LaPaille. Are they still married?

And I should add on that comment, the chief of sta...

2007-11-13T10:50:00.000-05:00

And I should add on that comment, the chief of staff for the House Republicans tried to get me fired because I did what we had to do in that race to win and didn't follow her horrible advice. My boss asked her, "How can you fire the guy for winning a race?" A few months later she ran off and married the chief of staff for House Speaker Mike Madigan. I learned long ago that often your real enemies are within your own party.

anon 9:55, I worked in a state rep campaign over i...

2007-11-13T10:45:00.000-05:00

anon 9:55, I worked in a state rep campaign over in Danville, Illinois back in 1986. MRG out of Michigan was doing polling for HRCC. We didn't think their polling in our district was accurate at all. They were about to write our race off in the final days. A veterinarian, who studied polling as a hobby, devised a poll for us. We assembled a group of 12 callers and sampled a little more than 300 voters in the two county district. The poll predicted the outcome of the race almost to the tee. My candidate won 52-48%. The poll results even had the county results down to a tee. It showed us in a dead tie in one of the counties--we won that county by less than 100 votes. The poll cost us nothing and was much more reliable than the poll numbers MRG was feeding the campaign committee. So the amount of money you spend on a poll is not always indicative of its accuracy.

I've been involved in multiple polls for many cand...

2007-11-13T09:55:00.000-05:00

I've been involved in multiple polls for many candidates over the years. I always subscribed to the theory that you hired pollsters based on theri tactics and professional accountability. That's never cheap.

Trust me--Selzer's dramatic and unprecedented withdrawl of results, recalculation and re-release, is being much-discussed among pols nationwide.

They used a statistically and demographically unprofessional and unrealistic sample group. They rolled the dice and predicted it correctly.

But their credibility is seriously questioned.

And FWIW, my polling experience tells me the more-espensive polls are generally more accurate and reliable, even when they give you results you don't like.

Selzer's poll was likely cheap. Her sample group, and the questioner (I got their call) were entirely unprofessional.

The Mayo'rs folks didn't ask that the poll be withdrawn. That was none other than Amos Brown. In yet another example of his unbiased and straight-forward journalistic style.

The Star and 13 milked the story for all it was worth. Don't forget, to explain the unusual polling methods and results, 13 rolled out Mrs. Ryearson, without disclosing her personal relationship...

All in all, not journalism's finest hour. Yeha, they got it right, and in this media market, that's all that will likely be remembered. But among pols, even Republicans, their tactics are in serious doubt.

Hell a broken clock is right twice a day. It wasn't difficult to predict this mayor was in trouble: he had a trifecta of two tax revolts and a close relationship withi a council leadership team whose tactics were given the boot last Tuesday. (Justifiably)

When Selzer puts together an accurate sample group, and gets another one right, her professional image will be back to 50-50.

No,. this is not sore loser talk. It's an objective review of political data and tactics. Ballard didn't ask for this poll...in fact, I think it gave him a startle, and almost made him peak too early.