Comments on Advance Indiana™: WISH-TV Poll Good News For Ballard

Brian Vargus, who used to run the IU Public Opinio...

2011-11-03T09:39:13.026-05:00

Brian Vargus, who used to run the IU Public Opinion Laboratory, also questioned the poll results in a story published through the Star.

I'm really shocked to see any politician in this environment with a an allegedly-high 65% approval rating.

This is going to be a close election. It's supposed to rain Tuesday, which dampens turnout, so every early vote matters right now.

I think you mean 47% Democratic, Vox. Ballard'...

2011-11-03T09:00:13.518-05:00

I think you mean 47% Democratic, Vox. Ballard's numbers below 50% don't make sense if his approval rating is that high, unless it's simply a reflection of the demographic shift in favor of the Democrats and there are a number of voters who won't vote for him simply because of his party affiliation. That doesn't, however, explain Kennedy's low number. I would not have thought it possible for a Democratic candidate to register that low this close to an election. That early voting result is completely upside down from the poll result. There seems to be internal inconsistencies in the poll.

Typically such a large pool of undecided voters th...

2011-11-03T08:40:53.308-05:00

Typically such a large pool of undecided voters this close to the election would be very bad news for the incumbent, as they almost always swing to the challenger on election day. This time I'm not so sure. This poll sample is strange. With a 57% Democratic sample I'm surprised to see only a 22% black voter representation, when it should be closer to 30%.

Trust me when I say the Carson machine will turn out the vote in Center Township, and the election for Lawrence Mayor has demoralized a lot of Republican voters up there since Ricketts is such an embarrassing disaster.

Kennedy failed to define Ballard early on, giving ...

2011-11-02T22:58:49.220-05:00

Kennedy failed to define Ballard early on, giving him a pass on so many of the unpopular things he's done in office. The reason why is undoubtedly because Kennedy, who is cut from insider cloth, doesn't want to alienate the insiders who have benefited from those deals.

I thought the number of undecideds was remarkable.