Comments on Advance Indiana™: Low Voter Turnout Likely To Cost Democrats Control Of Indianapolis City-County Council

I was wrong, but for the wrong reason. The Ds full...

2015-11-03T22:01:09.770-05:00

I was wrong, but for the wrong reason. The Ds fully expected to win the 2nd and 3rd Districts, with an outside chance of knocking off Jeff Miller. Low turnout hurt them in those races they believed they had to win. Better turnout would have made a big difference in those two races. Hunter's and Lutz' districts weren't even races the Rs considered at risk of losing or the Democrats anticipated winning. The Rs messed up badly by not taking these two races seriously enough.

You were wrong on this one.

2015-11-03T21:32:41.971-05:00

You were wrong on this one.

"The GOP council baselines are not as strong ...

2015-11-03T20:04:55.173-05:00

"The GOP council baselines are not as strong today as they were in the 2010 data that Brooks used to draw the map."

David Brooks behaves more like a Democrat.

56% reporting and it's appears to be 12-14 sea...

2015-11-03T19:59:28.366-05:00

56% reporting and it's appears to be 12-14 seats for the GOP so far. Christine Scales is up by a few hundred which is the usual margin there. Bob Lutz and Ben Hunter just a bit short with half of their precincts in.

At 30% precincts reporting, and it appears a mix o...

2015-11-03T19:34:26.747-05:00

At 30% precincts reporting, and it appears a mix of wards have reported and it looks like a 60-40 in favor of Mayor-elect Hogshit. Couple interesting things I'm seeing - one, the straight ticket voting seems to line up perfectly with the Mayoral results. Tells me there's not a lot of scratching going on.

Odd though is the precincts in Monroe Gray's district are slow to report. Hmmmmmm.....

today was the first election in 30 years that I wa...

2015-11-03T19:19:59.561-05:00

today was the first election in 30 years that I was no longer eligible to vote in Marion county.

So you all up there have a nice evening! Don't forget to pay your taxes now, ya'hear!

If African-Americans are displeased by Hogshitt, t...

2015-11-03T07:45:25.247-05:00

If African-Americans are displeased by Hogshitt, they should look at their own Elected Council Representatives. What exactly has the Elected African-American Councilors done for their communities? I suppose for that matter what any Elected Councilor accomplished that is meaningful.

It will not make a difference who is elected. The Republicrat Party here in Marion County will be the winner. Ballard had the chance when he was first elected, but decided to ride in the back seat while the Crony-Capitalists drove him around. It will be interesting to see where Ballard pops up once he is out of office. A job at Ivy Tech perhaps.

The Media and others will lament the low turnout and blame the the voters. They will not address the cause of the apathy. Both parties choose "safe" candidates that will go along with the Crony-Capitalist system.

If the Dems win a majority in the council, I wonde...

2015-11-03T06:43:27.539-05:00

If the Dems win a majority in the council, I wonder what rule the Republicans will change next...

This is great analysis. I agree with your thought...

2015-11-03T00:17:59.583-05:00

This is great analysis. I agree with your thoughts on turnout as well as the failures of the Hogsett and Brewer campaigns for the reasons cited. One thing I think that is left out of your analysis though is that Marion County is significantly more Democratic today than in 2011. We've had two intervening elections (2012 and 2014) in which the Republicans were not even competitive in the county. The GOP council baselines are not as strong today as they were in the 2010 data that Brooks used to draw the map.

In my prediction that the council will be 14-11 Democrat, I tried to factor in the improving Democratic fortunes in the county. The races that Democratic improvement will show up in, I'm frankly not sure. My prediction in the Shattuck and Mascari race frankly have me concerned. I know Shattuck's district extremely well since it's my part of town. When Ds get any kind of turnout in the district, it's not even a competitive area for Republicans. As far as Mascari, his opponent seems to have put considerable work into winning the swing district. Further, the near southside, including Beech Grove, is not trending more Democratic as is the other areas of the county, or at least as not as rapidly.

Regardless, I agree that the council elections represent a missed opportunity for the Democrats. With strong turnout, the Ds could have won 15-17 seats, possibly more. I don't see that happening.

There's a part of me that leads me to believe ...

2015-11-02T20:11:06.941-05:00

There's a part of me that leads me to believe Hogsett would prefer a Republican-controlled council. That may come as a surprise to some, but I know him well enough to know he wouldn't at all be bothered having a Republican-controlled council to provide cover for him from time to time.

I am very saddened to read this particular blog po...

2015-11-02T20:05:53.537-05:00

I am very saddened to read this particular blog post, Gary. You've been on target so many times before I give your analysis credence. You are correct that Lying Joe Hogsett failed to tap into the anger of an African American community marginalized and neglected by Republican Greg Ballard and MCRCC Kyle Walker. You are correct that Hogsett sure seemed to convey he would retain the illegal Ballard schemes and that Brewer never did distinguish himself from his opponent.

If tomorrow evening reveals Joe Hogsett did a Melina and that the establishment Republicans (which describes every one of them) have Council control, there MUST be condemnation of the Marion County Democrat machine because this "race" was theirs to lose from the outset. Joe HAS lost many elections and I can't help it but the Howdy Dowdy persona is just so nowhere and I think that no matter how much Hogsett trods on the worn path of King Park.... Hogsett just does not excite. Brewer is no John Kennedy himself and has seemed out of step with the pulse of the voter... no surprise there.

My predictions remain constant: It does not matter at all who wins as Indy Mayor and it certainly as hell does not matter at all who becomes a Councilor. Corrupt Marion County "Republican" Greg Ballard proved that amply over the last eight years or so with his multiple unethical/illegal/corrupt (take your pick or select them all) crony deals and the Councilors just sat back and allowed it all to occur. This is the precedent the next Mayor will follow and the course the CC Councilors will continue.

Lead-in should be more like: Elimination of Four A...

2015-11-02T20:01:10.652-05:00

Lead-in should be more like: Elimination of Four At-large Council Seats Likely to Cost Democrats Control of Indianapolis City-County Council. The only reason I can see that would break the historical Republican voting patterns of Marion County is disgust at the rebranding undertaken by the national Republican Party. When my straight-ballot voting, NRA member, anti-immigrant, long time Republican neighbor now calls himself an Independent, it is probably time to re-think how others may be re-evaluating the GOP.