Comments on Advance Indiana™: The 7th District Primary Race

Actually, Gary, Ballard got a lot of scratch votes...

2008-03-13T16:45:00.000-05:00

Actually, Gary, Ballard got a lot of scratch votes from black voters in the Pike precincts. He didn't win those precincts, but he did maybe 10% better than Republicans typically do in those precincts.

anon 2:08 said, "Well, what a surprise, I recall a...

2008-03-13T06:52:00.000-05:00

anon 2:08 said, "Well, what a surprise, I recall a recent election where some Blacks strongly supported Greg Ballard for mayor! After he was elected Greg Ballard turned his back on the Blacks who supported him and appointed "White" former Bart Peterson supporters to his staff."

You could not be more wrong. First, Greg Ballard received very little support in the black community. His share of the black vote was as low as any Republican has gotten in recent elections. Despite the fact that he ran so poorly in the black communities, Ballard has appointed a number of blacks to key positions in his administration. I don't know how anyone could claim he has turned his back on blacks.

"80-90% of the people supporting Carson were Black...

2008-03-13T00:16:00.000-05:00

"80-90% of the people supporting Carson were Black",
Well, what a surprise, I recall a recent election where some Blacks strongly supported Greg Ballard for mayor! After he was elected Greg Ballard turned his back on the Blacks who supported him and appointed "White" former Bart Peterson supporters to his staff. Greg Ballard turned his back on his Black supporters as soon as he won the election. Do you really think that "any" Black person would trust another Republican politican! Hell No! Elrod can thank Greg Ballard for his recent ass whipping! Never again!

AMEN!!!!!!

vox populi - I plan on doing JUST that!!! My vote...

2008-03-12T19:22:00.000-05:00

vox populi - I plan on doing JUST that!!! My vote will help determine who the D presidential candidate will be, I can vote for a D 7th congressional candidate - OH! What fun! (That is IF Beth "Incompetent" White can ever get her act together. Really, how pitiful is this woman!)

Wilson, please show us the video of Andre being hi...

2008-03-12T19:19:00.000-05:00

Wilson, please show us the video of Andre being his true SEXIST self!

I am going to have so much fun voting this May. *...

2008-03-12T19:18:00.000-05:00

I am going to have so much fun voting this May. *clap*clap*clap* I just can't wait!

5:06, Bayh's a non-issue now in Indiana. Carson wi...

2008-03-12T17:57:00.000-05:00

5:06, Bayh's a non-issue now in Indiana. Carson will hitch a ride with Obama just as Amos Brown stated recently. Hillary becomes a serious liability after the Penn primary, even more so than she is now.
For someone who stated earlier that Obama could take Indiana in the general election I would agree.
The numbers may not match 1964 (yes, I was around then) but they'll be real close.
McCain cannot turn out the voters so much as he can turn them off.
He's old news with the same GOP Bush agenda. People here won't buy it again. But they won't buy Hillary either. Obama? He's got the best and the brightest around him.
When a guy like Obama can pull the white and black vote equally who's going to beat him? Hell, look at the demographics from some of the cowboy states.
To be perfectly honest with you I think this general election will be like 1980 in reverse.
I don't think Mitch will survive any better than Hillenbrand did in 1980.
However, Carson will tag in with the Obama vote and I look for Obama to campaign with him before the primary.
It will take one helluva a campaign to unseat Carson now. The DCCC will still be running Carson's deal in the primary if that tells you anything.
Elrod may as well drop off the ticket because he's done. Losers seldom get 2nd chances and Elrod lost, and he lost big.
It is not going to be a very good year for Republican's in Indiana.

Agreed on David O., but you are actually calling J...

2008-03-12T17:28:00.000-05:00

Agreed on David O., but you are actually calling Jon Elrod one of our finest representatives? On what do you base your assessment?

I don't think you could be more wrong. I know SO ...

2008-03-12T17:06:00.000-05:00

I don't think you could be more wrong. I know SO MANY Democrats who only voted for Carson to keep the seat. You can't possibly believe that the numbers Andre got yesterday will be matched in May.

Additionally, turn out will be huge in May because the state matters.

And as for Barack's support.... don't you think Andre might have to stay on the Hillary bandwagon thanks to Bayh's support of his campaign???

Wilson seems to be untouchable!He is a thorn in th...

2008-03-12T16:47:00.000-05:00

Wilson seems to be untouchable!
He is a thorn in the Democratic Machine, but no one, even Golden Child André Carson, can silence him.

When will he leave for D.C., and quit the CCC?

Any truth to the rumor that Wilson got busted in h...

2008-03-12T15:42:00.000-05:00

Any truth to the rumor that Wilson got busted in his own precinct for electioneering inside the polling place?

If he only knew how his fellow Dems in that precinct feel about him.

I just finished looking at some pretty interesting...

2008-03-12T15:41:00.000-05:00

I just finished looking at some pretty interesting precinct-by-precinct results, collected from committeemen I know all over the county.

The real turnout is gonna be 20-21%when it's all said and done. Which is pathetic, but better than most expected.

In Center, some precincts turned out 9-11%. In Pike, it hovered around 25-30%. In Washington and Decatur, it was 32-38%.

In the precincts who turn out better, Jon Elrod won or held his own. He lost his shirt in Center.

Do the math. The win was there for him if he'd jsut worked Center a little harder. If he loses the overall township 72-25, just cutting the margin to 2-1 is a huge boost.

Kinda hard to do with abortion and gun control platforms heavily-promoted.

Any two-candidate race becomes a trade-off politically. A multi-candidate race is all about turning out your vote, and picking away a few points from opponents' bases. Andre has nowhere to go but down until May 6 because of all the talented candidates running in the Democratic primary. He will not get anywhere clsoe to 53%.

Those same precincts where Elrod did OK, are swing precincts that vote heaviest in every election.

In multiple precincts, where Elrod won or came real close, he did so with some Democratic votes.

Those votes will, of course, go "back home" in seven weeks.

And do you think most of them are going to vote for Andre? Hell no they won't.

On that basis alone, Andre is in big trouble in May. Two of the other three candidates will siphon some black votes from him. One candidate will not uffer that fate: David O.

David's strong precincts will be his backyard, and he might even hold his own in Pike.

It's a long time until May 6. But Andre has to juggle a Congressional schedule, ambitious fund-raising and a campaign.

Does anyone here think he's up to that big task? I don't.

(Ducking for the sure-to-cone Wilson slam).

Um, 2:08, Wilson never tires of pointing out that ...

2008-03-12T15:04:00.000-05:00

Um, 2:08, Wilson never tires of pointing out that Peterson WON the 7th District precincts in the mayoral election last November...by about the same percentage as Andre Carson did. So the difference has to be in the "Dan Burton" fringes of the county. I doubt there are enough African-American Democrats out there in Burton-land to have swung the Mayoral election.

"80-90% of the people supporting Carson were Black...

2008-03-12T14:08:00.000-05:00

Yes! Advance Indiana, you are so right about the e...

2008-03-12T14:00:00.000-05:00

Yes! Advance Indiana, you are so right about the evils of politics! yet, it is a bigger negative to have an idiot as our mayor! Where in the world did Greg Ballard come from and how in the world did we elect such a fool while kicking dishonest Bart Peterson out of office. Honest and fair people simply do not run for political office!

This sucks. This Democrat was so disgusted with th...

2008-03-12T12:49:00.000-05:00

This sucks. This Democrat was so disgusted with the choice of Carson that I voted for Elrod. I think you're right, I think we're gonna be stuck with him for quite some time, which means I'll be voting Republican.

anon 8:47, I'm surprised you got "mass" mailings from Elrod. Really? Like many, I got virtually bombarded with slick negative mailers from Carson. I got ONE nice letter from Elrod.

"Congressman André Carson's election night victory...

2008-03-12T12:36:00.000-05:00

"Congressman André Carson's election night victory speech:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PPfkNUEcH50"

Andre accepted money from terrorist groups who are supporting the killing of US service men and women in Iraq. Andre Carson has American blood on his hands. There will be a special place in hell for people like Andre Carson and for those who help him. Wilson that includes you. Andre Carson and Wilson Allen are terrorist and traitors.

Dick Tuck, the famed Democratic dirty-trickster, u...

2008-03-12T12:13:00.001-05:00

Dick Tuck, the famed Democratic dirty-trickster, upon losing a legislative race in California in 1964 issued a brief statement: "The people have spoken...the bastards." So they have. Now they shall get the representation they deserve.

Gary, I share your disappointment, but I have to say that Elrod ran a very poor campaign and Carson's operatives ran a very effective one.

Appealing to the right with abortion and gun control pablum was silly at best and strategically insane. Who made these decisions? Who was advising him? Who was responsible for fund-raising?

This reminds me of the Kernan campaign: an incredible good man who ran an incredibly poor campaign.

We should be ashamed to send someone with so littl...

2008-03-12T12:13:00.000-05:00

We should be ashamed to send someone with so little intellect or acomplishment to be our Congressional representative. Where is the pride, folks?

"Come Fall, McCain will have his doors blown off i...

2008-03-12T11:40:00.000-05:00

"Come Fall, McCain will have his doors blown off in Indiana"

You really think Indiana will go Dem in a Presidential year since Johnson's landslide against Goldwater in 1964?

Whatever you're smoking you need to share with the Libertarians.

Okay, on second though I decided to pass along my ...

2008-03-12T11:07:00.000-05:00

Okay, on second though I decided to pass along my unsolicited advice for Elrod to the candidate himself. In case, the advice actually gets heeded it would be better that it not be in the hands of Democrats who might read this blog.

Paul K. Ogden

Jon Elrod's political career has come to an end. B...

2008-03-12T10:27:00.000-05:00

Jon Elrod's political career has come to an end. Blind ambition.
Of course his name will be on the GOP ballot in the upcoming primary and he will no doubt be cannon fodder in the general election but for all intents and purposes, his political career ended last night.
The political careers of three other officeholders will end soon too. David O., Mays and Meyers will not come close in the primary against Carson.
Assuming that the Pennsylvania Dem primary even splits delegates then Carson will hitch up to the Obama Machine just as Obama hitched up to the Carson Machine last night. Once the formal marriage takes place after the Penn primary then it's all over.
There will a record turnout in the Indiana primary and the 7th District vote will be overwhelmingly Obama and Carson. The local GOP will stay home aside from the ones who want to get in on casting a vote for history.
Come Fall, McCain will have his doors blown off in Indiana and not just Marion County. The Governor's race will be very closely tied to the Presidential and Mitch will just barely survive.
The 7th District I'm afraid is stuck with Andre for quite some time.

"The Democrats foisted this man on us and now they...

2008-03-12T10:21:00.000-05:00

"The Democrats foisted this man on us and now they're going to have to live with the consequences.'
No...actually, we are ALL going to have to live with the consequences.

This country just continues its slide into the sewer.

Well, Gary, if your team had run a better campaign...

2008-03-12T10:10:00.000-05:00

Well, Gary, if your team had run a better campaign (you know, spelling things right in emails, raising some cash, etc) we wouldn't be having this conversation.

Gary,I’m usually the one to caution people about b...

2008-03-12T10:09:00.000-05:00

Gary,

I’m usually the one to caution people about being overly optimistic in this type of race. Here I’d caution you from being too pessimistic. If you look at the positives, Elrod is a good candidate who is willing to work very hard. He, unlike many Republicans here in Indy, understands the importance of reaching out to independent minded voters in the district and creating new coalitions. C

arson has a number of negatives and you have a divisive Democratic Primary that is going to bring those negatives to the fore. Elrod got a free shot to get his name in the media during a first go-around. He now has an opportunity to analyze his likely (I agree Carson will probably win the primary) opponent’s strengths and weaknesses before the general election. That’s a huge benefit.

The problem is the Marion County GOP organization has the entire 20 plus years I’ve been involved with it, not known how to run campaigns in a competitive general election environment. We went from dominating the county to, within 1 or 2 election cycles, being dominated by the Democrats in the county. The Marion County GOP has always placed a premium on picking candidates who will go along with whatever the county GOP leaders wanted, even when what they’re doing doesn’t appeal to someone beyond baseline Republicans, and even may turn off independents and swing Democrats. While some of these people were good elected officials, very few would have been good CANDIDATES in a competitive election environment.

While the slating process in theory is good, in practice it quite often breaks down to a situation where party leaders are filling empty positions to stack the process so their favorite candidate wins. (Not every township chairman does this.) A bigger problem though is that slating very often obviates the need for the endorsed candidates to run in a competitive primary. Rather than be a terrible thing, those competitive primaries often result in the better general election candidate emerging with sharpened campaign skills they can use in the fall. The standard assumption that a competitive primary is bad and will hurt the successful candidate often isn’t true at all.

In a separate post, I’ll offer my unsolicited suggestions for the Elrod campaign.

Paul K. Ogden