Election Predictions

Here's my best guess at what's going to happen in Tuesday's elections.

U.S. Senate-Democrats Gain 5 Seats
Democrats appear poised to come within striking distance of taking over the U.S. Senate. I'm predicting Democrats will pick up 5 seats, one short of what they need to win control. Sen. Lincoln Chafee (R-RI), Sen. Conrad Burns (R-MT), Sen. Mike DeWine (R-OH) and Sen. Rick Santorum (R-PA) will lose. The Democrats will likely knock off either Sen. James Talent (R-MO) or Sen. George Allen (R-VA). Republicans have a 50-50 shot at knocking off Sen. Robert Menendez (D-NJ) and defeating Rep. Ben Cardin (D-MD).

U.S. House-Democrats Gain 24 Seats
Democrats will win control of the U.S. House of Representatives. The only question is the size of the margin. They need only 15 seats to win back control for the first time in 10 years. Traditionally, that size of a pick up by the party out of power is a cinch in the 6th year of the presidency of the party in power. Add to that Bush's low approval rating, discontent over the handling of the war in Iraq and Republican congressional scandals, and it's hard to imagine anything but a significant Republican loss.

Democrats best hope for gains comes in a handful of northern states, including Indiana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, New York and Connecticut, where the Democrats quite possibly could pick up 3 seats in each of these states and surpass the number they need to win. Republicans realistically have only three good shots nationally to knock off an incumbent Democrat. Two of those seats are in Georgia. Indiana's 7th District seat is the other seat where Eric Dickerson is running neck-and-neck with Rep. Julia Carson (D). Republicans once thought they could knock off Rep. Melissa Bean (D) in Illinois, but those chances have faded in recent weeks.

Indiana's 2d, 3rd, 7th, 8th and 9th
Indiana has four House seats in play on Tuesday. I don't believe the 3rd District race between Rep. Mark Souder (R) and Tom Hayhurst (D) will prove competitive. I would agree with Brian Howey that both the 7th and 9th District races are tossups at this point. Rep. Chris Chocola (R) has closed the lead his Democratic opponent, Joe Donnelly, has held for several months and it is by no means certain that he's going to lose. But the added drag from Gov. Daniels' low favorability ratings and opposition to the toll road privatization in the northern Indiana region complicates Chocola's re-election chances. He's probably not going to make it. Rep. John Hostettler (R) has consistently trailed his Democratic opponent Brad Ellsworth by significant margins. His opposition to the Iraq War and independent streak seems to be helping him little this year. He does, however, tend to outpoll the polling predictions based on the support he gets from his grassroots organization, but it doesn't look like that's going to be enough to save him this time.

In the 9th District, this is really the race between two incumbents, making it different from other races. Former Rep. Baron Hill was elected to three terms from this district before he was defeated by Rep. Mike Sodrel (R). Hill also served as a state legislator for many years in the district. Hill won all of his races by narrow margins. He lost narrowly to Sodrel two years ago. Both candidates carry a lot of baggage with voters in this district. Sodrel is the most likely to survive this Democratic election year of the three Indiana GOP seats on the line.

While most of the attention in Indiana has been focused on the 2nd, 8th and 9th District races, the race in the 7th District may be just as close. Voter concerns about Rep. Carson's noticeably declining health and her negative campaign against Eric Dickerson (R) are working against her re-election in what should be a safe seat for Democrats. Despite the fact that she's been in Congress for 10 years, she has not been able to increase her winning margin in elections in successive elections. She has never been popular with white voters, who make up two-thirds of the district, making the district competitive every election cycle. While her Republican opponent has raised less than $60,000 for the race, he entered the race with a household name as a well-known automobile dealer and the same name as a former Colts player. Unlike her previous opponents, Dickerson, as a successful African-American businessman, has a realistic chance of cutting into her rock solid support among black voters. This race will likely be decided by less than 2,000 votes. Carson has the edge because of the district's built-in advantage for Democrats, but Dickerson has a realistic chance of upsetting her. If he does, he will immediately gain national recognition and prominence as the only black Republican in the House of Representatives.

Statewide Races-Republicans Win
The statewide races for Secretary of State, Treasurer and Auditor receive little attention and most voters have no idea who they are, including the incumbent candidates. The results in each of these three races will be very close, with Republicans winning each of the seats by a 52%-48% margin. If Democrats were to upset the Republican candidates, you know it's a very big Democratic year.

Indiana Senate-Democrats Gain 3
Indiana Democrats are not very well-position to gain a lot of seats in the Senate, where they are currently outnumbered 33-17. With retirements and a lack of strong candidates in most of the districts, the Democrats will only make small gains this year. I'm predicting Russell Brown will knock off Sen. James Merritt (R) in Indianapolis and Democrats will pick up the seats currently held by Sen. John Waterman (R) and Sen. Robert Garton (R), leaving the Republicans with a 30-20 margin of control

Indiana House-Democrats Gain 5
Democrats will regain control of the Indiana House after losing it narrowly two years ago. I'm predicting a pick up of 5 seats, giving the Democrats a 53-47 seat advantage. The numbers aren't hard to arrive it. As Brian Howey notes, there are 33 safe Republican seats this year, while there are 45 safe Democratic seats. Several Republican incumbents in northern Indiana are endangered because of the unpopularity of the toll road privatization and Gov. Daniels. The Democrats can easily win enough seats along this northern corridor alone to gain control of the House. Elsewhere, Republicans are very much in danger of losing three seats currently held by Rep. Larry Buell (R), Rep. Troy Woodruff (R) and Rep. Tom Saunders (R). Republicans' best shot at picking up a Democratic held seat may be the seat held by Rep. Ed Mahern (D) where Jon Elrod (R) is running a strong campaign.

My prediction is bolstered by Brian Howey's report that even Speaker Brian Bosma is ackowledging that there are 10 races left within the margin of error, and that Republicans appear safe in only 44 seats compared to 46 seats for the Democrats. In a year that is already trending Democratic and a legislative map which was drawn to favor Democrats, you have to bet on the Democrats winning back control of the House.

Marion County
Marion County Prosecutor Carl Brizzi (R) will defeat Melina Kennedy (D) by a 54%-46% margin. I think the other county races for sheriff, county clerk, recorder and auditor will be surprisingly close because of voter discontent over rising crime and dissatisfaction with Mayor Bart Peterson's administration. These races could well be decided by a razor-thin margin. Democrats have the advantage because of the county's changing demographics, but a Republican win in any of the races would not be a surprise. Except for the sheriff's race, these offices are all currently held by Republicans.