Monday, January 25, 2010
Rasmussen Poll Puts Pence Ahead Of Bayh
U.S. Rep. Mike Pence receives more encouragement to enter the U.S. Senate race in Indiana against Sen. Evan Bayh. Rasmussen Reports has just released a new poll showing Pence beating Bayh by a 47% to 44%, 3-point margin. In a match-up with former U.S. Rep. John Hostettler, Bayh has a small three point lead of 44% to 41%. State Sen. Marlin Stutzman trails Bayh by 12 points, 45% to 33%. The fact that Bayh is polling below 50% this early in the race suggests he is highly vulnerable in what could turn out to be a watershed election for Republicans.
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9 comments:
Not very meaningful when the margin of error is +/- 3.5% at 95% confidence.
The significance in these polls is how the incumbent is doing in general in various match-ups. If Bayh continues to poll below 50% in this election cycle, the odds are pretty good he will be defeated in November.
The last 9 times I've tried to call his office, I am turned away with busy signals or sometimes I am asked to leave a message on a recording.
I've never talked to a live person at his office.
So much for Bayh's representation of my concerns. He's horribly disconnected from us.
Michael,
Actually a margin of error at 3.5% is smaller than the typical 4% or 5%you see in most polls. At the very best though it shows Bayh could be in trouble, which I have always said.
In the roller coaster of health care legislaton, pre-Brown election in Massachusetts, I bet I called Bayh's office a dozen times on three different numbers. I got through maybe four times. His reps were minimally available or caring during protests outside his office. My attitude is he doesn't give a rat's behind about citizens protesting government spending or expansion- until he feels his job is threatened. He may vote against the grain of his party more often than the average Democrat; only problem is these are not average times.
If Pence runs and is well funded, Bayh will lose. Period.
This will be a BIG GOP year. People are in no mood to forgive and forget. Especially independents. They have had enough.
Weasely "say one thing at home, vote the other way in DC" are the types of Dems most vulnerable here.
This year's political environment is extremely toxic to Dems, and Obama is going to make it worse for them.
It may be a repeat of '94.... 1894 that is.
If Bayh is now calling for more taxes, he is definitely not going to be reelected.
Bayh's staff rarely answers the office phones and when they respond by letter, it says nothing or is not even related to the issue you contacted about in the first place.
Well, Pence decided not to run against Bayh.
Hmmm.
If he were a shoe-in, that's a strange decision!
Maybe y'all are just plain wrong?
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