Latest Poll Spells Trouble For Lugar

A Howey Politics/Depauw Battleground poll of likely Republican primary voters shows Sen. Richard Lugar clinging to a small lead over his Republican primary challenger, Indiana State Treasurer Richard Mourdock. Lugar is favored by 42% of the poll's respondents compared to 35% who favor Mourdock. The poll of 503 likely Republican primary voters, which has a 4.5 percent margin of error in either direction, was taken during the last week of March when Lugar was plagued by legal issues regarding his residency status for voting registration purposes and the revelation that he had illegally billed taxpayer more than $14,000 for trips to Indiana when the Senate wasn't in session during his 35-year career in the Senate. The poll mirrors two recent polls that also showed Lugar with only a 6-point lead over Mourdock with support well below the 50% mark that signals trouble for an incumbent.

The poll found that among self-described Republicans, Lugar and Mourdock were running dead even. Lugar was more than 20 percentage points ahead of Mourdock among those describing themselves as independent or leaning Republican. Among those likely voters, Lugar leads 52%-26%. Lugar also performs better in a general election match-up with the Democratic candidate, U.S. Rep. Joe Donnelly. Lugar leads Donnelly 50%-29%, while the race is tied at 35% each when Donnelly is matched against Mourdock.

The poll included numbers for the state's presidential primary race and the general gubernatorial election race between U.S. Rep. Mike Pence and former House Speaker John Gregg. Rick Santorum leads Mitt Romney 27%-26%, with Ron Paul and Newt Gingrich trailing far behind with 6% each. Pence holds a 44%-31% lead over Gregg in the November gubernatorial election, with Libertarian Rupert Boneham being the choice of just 5% of those polled.