Hill Leads Sodrel In 9th District
If a new WISH-TV poll is to be believed, Democratic challenger Melina Kennedy has gained an edge over Republican incumbent Carl Brizzi in the race for Marion Co. Prosecutor. Kennedy is favored over Brizzi by 43%-42%, largely on the support she is getting from Democrats and women. Brizzi leads among men and Republicans, but the poll identified only 33% of the respondents as Republicans. Kennedy also has a slight advantage, 39%-38%, among independent voters.
Jim Shella reports on his blog that Brizzi is questioning the reliability of the sampling. He asked Shella in his televised interview responding to the poll results if the respondents were made aware that Kennedy has never prosecuted a case or sent a criminal to jail. That sounds like a future negative campaign ad for the Brizzi campaign against Kennedy. Incidentally, the new "CSI" ads, as Matt Tully calls them, which the Brizzi campaign is currently running to tout his prosecutorial experience, look like one of those cheezy ads you see personal injury attorneys running on television. A new format is in order if he wants voters to take him seriously.
WISH-TV also released results of a poll taken in the 9th Congressional District, which shows former Rep. Baron Hill (D) with a 46%-40% lead over Rep. Mike Sodrel (R). Among independent voters, Hill led Sodrel by a whopping 52%-29% margin. That's bad news for the Republicans. It's looking more and more likely that Democrats will sweep the 2nd, 8th and 9th District races this year, giving national Democrats 20% of the net seats they need to win control of the House.
15 comments:
In Marion County, a poll that is stratified in the proper manner, would have:
All registered voters
--who plan to vote in Nov.
--43.5% of whom voted in May
32-37% Republican
36-41% Dem
up to 22% who ID as "Indep."
or, if pushed, "Undecided"
Carl may not like these parameters but it reflects the county.
Does he actually think any reputable organization would pay serious money for a poll which was blatantly undersampling one of the major parties?
I didn't think he was a very good prosecutor. But I didn't think he was dillusional.
And yes, the ads look cheezy. Very.
If the WISH poll was taken BEFORE Calr began his ad blitz, then he may be better off. Seriously, not many people start paying attention to the election until Oct.15 or so.
And Melina's early personable ads were brilliant.
(Whatever happened to Brian Vargus, by the way?)
It's not the margin that matters...(inside the MoE, esp).
The fact that Kennedy is within the MoE, and that a challenger is at 43 is news.
The real problem for Carl is his re-elect is at 42. Before any ads attacking his performance go up.
This has to be a good day for the Kennedy campaign...
Correct, but....
if this hit before Carl's ads started, there's a few points of swing there.
Nonetheless, Melina's early soft ads have to go down as brilliance...timing-wise and content-wise.
Kinda hard to bitch slap a mother of twins, huh, Carl? I'm a Dem and didn't even know she had twins until those ads.
Kennedy needs to at stay home with her twins and raise them. At the present, given the crime rate, Marion County does not need an on-the-job-training prosecutor who has not tried any criminal cases.
She and her husband decided to start their family, and I am sure that will be her number one priority if one of the twins become ill.
Kennedy is selling issues that are not within her power to fix as prosecutor. Her ads are just mere political propoganda. She says what people want to hear for right now, but delivery is a different ball game.
Carl Brizzi is doing a great job and will be re-elected!
Anon 11:31 --
Brizzi's ads are cheezy -- as someone has said. I'm sure they'll get better.
And, Kennedy's first ad was indeed brilliant. And I'm sure we'll see even better ads as we head into Nov's election.
However, it's important to point out that the Marion County Prosecutor's job is a management job. Trying to portray youself as some "bad ass motherfucker" in a cheezy ad, may play well to the non-voting couch potatos in the trailer parks in Frog Holler, down by the mosquito-ridden creek bed off Michigan St and Holt Road, but it won't go down with people who understand that by having done a terrible job as a manager, Brizzi has let us all down -- in many ways.
The Hamilton Street Massacre would most likely have not happened if Brizzi had done his job right.
The sexual harrassment and other misdeeds in the Marion County Prosecutor's Office would most likely have never happened, had Brizzi been doing his job right.
Kennedy's level of intelligence, her vast management experience, and her superb work ethic will help make her one of the best prosecutors this county has ever had.
And, for the record, your sexist statements, implying that women ought to stay home and raise their families, lacked only the admonishment that they should be barefoot and pregnant all the time.
Your overly excited and ambitious comment that Brizzi will be reelected is about as out of step with reality as your old fashioned, tired, and worn out view that women aren't capable of doing a 'man's' job.
Pop another PBR and fire up your dirty porn videos while the wife's out buying groceries tonight at the 24/hr convenince store with your food stamps. Your trailer ought to be cooled down enough you can masturbate before she gets home.
Wow. If Carl can't bitch slap the twins' mother, he'll leave it to the gernius who posted at 11:31.
Idiots abound.
Just saw Melina's new ad, which points directly at management issues. Another brilliant ad, and I was prepared to be under-impressed.
Keep it up Carl...this was your race to lose, and it looks like you just might do that.
Brizzi's latest ad, recoiling against gang violence, just aired.
It's the same camera-jerky style. Sure to warm the hearts of those 50-80 year old northside GOPers whom you need to win, Carl.
And, blatantly obvious...the only gang membmers pictured are black.
Fanning some flames, huh, Carl?
Kennedy's first ad was indeed brilliant, but people know now her, they need to know she will be tough on crime.
Having heard both Kennedy and Brizzi speak in recent weeks, I have no doubt that if voters listen to both of them, Kennedy will sway 3/4 of the undecideds.
42% re-elect two months out is getting near the "dead" number...
Carl will have to go hard-negative soon. That where be were the genius of Kennedy's first ads will be displayed. "He's attacking that nice, qualified, Deputy Mayor?"
By the way, the number that matters most: 68% (Mayor Peterson's Approval Rating)
I'll bet the overwhelmingly popular Mayor will play a major role in promoting his protege, Kennedy.
The blogger saying "stay home with the twins" is surely Carl Brizzi himself. An outrageous slam on women.
I'm told that an internal GOP poll on the mayor's poz numbers in mid-August, at a difficult time crime-wise, was over 70%, and they were so stunned they immediately shredded the poll and ordered all not to talk about it.
That loud sound you hear is the sound of a tired old elephant dying. Slowly.
GOP internals at 70 would match strawpolling done at about 68...
If the Mayor is that popular, and Kennedy continues to feature him promeninently, Brizzi's done.
The Mayor has made some boneheaded moves, but, most importantly, he has tackled tough issues, instead of waiting around.
I think it's a basic attitude--he wants to solve big problems, not leave them for someone else. He may fail, but he's going to try.
He wakes up every morning a millionaire. He doesn't need this job. So, if he's going to do it, he wants to do it right.
And I know, he has high expectations for his staff. Sometimes, as in business situations, they let him down. But ask anyone who works for him: they like him, he has high standards, and he doesn't tolerate intertia.
Which makes all the Carson Center nonsense more difficult to understand.
Mayor Bart is having the Machine do all the dirty work. then he has the Granma and Indy TV networks kissing his ass.
The ones who think he's doing a good job are the diehard dems and the lemmings.
I think he's doing a good job as mayor, and I'm no Diehard Dem or a lemming.
I think he can do a lot better, tho.
If only he'd stand up to this Center Township bullshit.
Someone has deluded him into thinking he got elected twice by Center Township folks. Which if course is not true.
The commercial ads that were deemed brilliant (kennedy) were also untrue. The prosecutors office like any other political office needs integrity which Kennedy seems to lack. By using only the headlines of press conferences she called but did not allow the viewers to read the rest of the article where she does some quick back-peddling. As for the mayor, all you need to do is look at the president of your city county council, the coroners office, the Carson government center and others to see that Kennedy has been well trained in deceiving the public.
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