Voter discontent in Indiana is thought to be so strong that the state could provide three of the 15 seats Democrats need to take control of the House. In addition to the north-central Indiana seat Chocola holds, Indiana's two Republican-held southern seats are viewed as up for grabs.
"Indiana is literally the center of the universe right now," said Amy Walter, who tracks House races for the nonpartisan Cook Political Report. "To have three Republican incumbents in a very Republican state either tied or behind their Democratic opponents, what is that?"
I've said it before, and I'll say it again. Election returns will start rolling in here long before the outcome of many of the other contested races around the country will be known. If election returns show the 2nd's Chris Chocola, the 8th's John Hostettler and the 9th's Mike Sodrel all losing to their Democratic opponents, you can be assured that Democrats will recapture more than the 15 seats needed to control the House. If Democrats can pick up 2 of the 3 Indiana races, their chances of recapturing control are still better than 50%. If they pick up only one of the seats, it's likely to go down to the wire as to which party controls the House.
7 comments:
Of course the article fails to mention that Democrats will lose one of their self-proclaimed "shoo-in" districts when Eric Dickerson becomes the 7th District congressman from Indiana.
No slight intended on my part. There are always a few anomalous races every election. I don't rule out the possibility that the 7th District could be one of those races. It is not, however, a race to watch as a barometer of the outcome of elections nationally.
How much of votes in the "Swing" Districts can be atrributed to anti-incumbent feelings with the voters ( Throw the bums out ) or low support for the current office holder compared to low support for Bush or opposition to Bush ? In an off year election how much is national ( Bush and or the war ) compared to local issues ?
Nationally, there is a strong anti-Bush headwind that all GOP incumbents must deal with. Souder, Buyer, Burton and Pence will feel it too but the democraphics in their districts are solid enough for them not to make them vulnerable. Strong Democratic challengers backed with sufficient cash in "soft" districts like the 2nd, 8th & 9th are all hoping to ride that anti-Bush, anti-RubberStamp Congress wave. National political tendencies will not favor GOP challengers in the 1st & 7th Districts.
I think Wilson is generally right, but I'm suspicious of a few things...
Why are gas prices going down now? What supply or market conditions have changed now, diffrent than May or June? Nothing. I believe there is some manipulation going on, and lower prices in November will help Republicans. I'm not rooting for higher prices, I'm just highly suspicious. (Winter natural gas contracts are being signed now...will they follow pump irce trends, as they usually do? Don't bet on it. The election will be over by the ntime that first heat bill rolls in.)
I'm also suspicious of Bush taking three weeks off, basically, to barnstorm for Republican candidates. He and his cronies are redefining the war into a battle against extremist Islamic terrorists. For those of you keeping score at home, that's the third morph this war has seen.
If voters are stupid enough to fall victim to short memories, as much as I want it to happen, I'm not sure Dems will recapture the House.
And lower gas prices, coupled with Iraqi War Explanation III, could combine for some dramatic switcheroo.
If you want a Congress that will get nothing done because it'll spend the next two years with Conyers trumping up his charges to "impeach Bush" then you go right ahead and vote Democratic. If you want to turn tail and run and declare defeat, vote Democratic. If you want more encouragement for companies to move offshore and lose US based jobs because Congress will undo the tax cuts of the previous 6 years, vote Democratic. If you want the gutting of rights such as those provided by the 2nd Amendment, vote Democratic. If you want spineless leaders like Kofi Annan to tell the US how to conduct its affairs, vote Democratic. If you want 2 more years of more of the same malaise and economic decline for Indianapolis, vote Democratic.
There's no need to "trump up" charges to impeach Bush. He's lied to the American people, abused the power of his office, and in so doing, has sealed his own fate. If you want a fascist state, vote Republican.
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