Friday, April 29, 2016

New Poll Shows Trump Up In Indiana By Nine Points

Every poll taken in Indiana shows Donald Trump leading his Republican primary opponents in next week's primary election. The latest poll released by ARG gives Trump a 9-point advantage over his nearest competitor, Ted Cruz. Trump leads Cruz by a 41-32% margin. Kasich is far behind with just 21% of the vote. Trump is leading in almost every category, including likely Republican voters, young and older voters, male and even female voters.

A second poll released by a Republican pollster, Clout Research, shows the race much closer. Trump is ahead by only two percentage points in that poll over Cruz, 37-35%. Kasich trails with only 16% of the vote.

If I'm not around to see the vote results, my prediction is that Trump wins Indiana with just shy of 50% of the vote, but he will carry every single congressional district and sweep the delegate race--assuming the party-chosen delegates honor their rules-bound commitment to support the winner on the first ballot. Most of those delegates favored John Kasich at the time they were chosen. Only two of the delegates named by state party officials publicly declared their support for Trump, although some have indicated they would feel obligated to support the voters' wishes.

Cruz has made Indiana his last stand. He threw a hail mary pass earlier in the week by naming Carly Fiorina as his running mate in hopes of attracting female voters in next week's primary election. He snagged Gov. Pence's endorsement today, although his favorability numbers aren't so hot right now and that endorsement is likely to further infuriate already alienated Republican and independent voters. Cruz has also taken up residence in the state this past week, criss-crossing the state with multiple appearances. His crowds have been small compared to Trump's rallies.

Trump has had fewer appearances in Indiana, but his rallies have drawn far larger and more enthusiastic crowds. He returns this weekend for rallies in Fort Wayne on Sunday at Memorial Coliseum, and he will close out his campaigning in Indiana at the Century Center in South Bend Monday evening. Click here for information on those events.

Early voting, which started off very slow, has surged and appears to be well above average for presidential primary elections in Indiana in many counties now. Those new voters will favor Trump, not Cruz. The Democratic primary will draw far fewer voters. Clinton should handily defeat Bernie Sanders by a 58-42% margin, helped by those who might have otherwise voted in the Democratic primary choosing to take a Republican ballot instead.

UPDATE: There's a real outlier poll added to the mix late today. IPFW/Downs Center in Fort Wayne released a poll showing Cruz with a double-digit lead of 45 to 29% over Trump. Adding that lopsided poll into the mix makes the RealClearPolitics average show a very tight race, with Trump up about 2%, 37.5-35.2%.


Anonymous said...


Anonymous said...

Keep up the good work Gary!

Anonymous said...

As a dyed in the wool fiscal and social conservative, it pains me to see so many of my fellow conservatives fooled by Rafael "Daddy" Cruz. I've suspected that the man is a pathological liar, not because Trump says so, but because the evidence says so.

1. Ben Carson, Iowa. That's not Christian.
2. Amanda Carpenter's blacklist. That's not conservative. Commies keep blacklists.
3. Heidi on the Freeway. Maybe he is "Lucifer in the Flesh."
4. Tithing? Who can afford to tithe when the family's financial foundation is at stake?
5. Speaking of financial foundations, Goldman Sachs...the vampire squid.

The biggest lie of all is #cruzsexscandal. I have been struggling to understand how the liberal media let that one die. I asked a fellow conservative and he assured me that it was because "there's nothing there." "Gee," I asked him, "When has that stopped the liberal media before? " He went white as a ghost. Duh.

It's just a theory, conservative friends, but I think #cruzsexscandal died so quickly because it wasn't time to use it yet. Cruz's job has always been to destroy Trump. He has failed so far and we are in the envious position of driving the proverbial silver stake through his heart. If he succeeds, the next chapter will be for the Republican leadership to destroy him. It will be fun to watch some of you get that deer in the headlights look. Then again, some of you will never figure it out. You're still wondering why they hate us so much.

You have a choice. I hope you use it wisely. You can play along and be complicit in the destruction of this once great nation, or you can grow a little spine, learn to think for yourselves and do something that will absolutely enrage and ultimately destroy the powers that be. They have exposed themselves. It is all out in the open now. So you can be part of the revolution or you can vote for more debt, more endless wars and more lies from our leaders. Either way, Rafael "Daddy" Cruz is never going to be POTUS. The Republican Party could not be clearer on that.

Anonymous said...

Question for everyone. How can I find out "WHO and WHAT" about the delegates? I see to vote for 2 of the 4. I am googling and hitting zero - like I do for Mike Campbell (which I am guessing is a JOKE)

Anonymous said...

A vote for Cruz or Kasich is a vote for a status quo, handpicked candidate. Reince Priebus has been on record saying that a candidate currently running will be the nominee.

If you remember, Rubio suspended his campaign (he did not end it) while locking his delegates from voting for another candidate.

We know of Kasich's years at the Golden Trough, and Cruz has tried his best to hide his North American Union agenda, with his wife on the Council of Foreign Relations.

Marycatherine Barton said...

And according to his website, Donald is also scheduled to be a Trump rally on Sunday at 1:00 in Terre Haute, and on Monday, at 4:00 in Carmel, at the Center for Performing Arts. In Calif., he and his supporters should have been better protected by the Secret Service. Pray for him and his family and supporters.

Btw, Gary, should we read any foreboding in your words about "if you are around for the election results". Take care of yourself, please.

Anonymous said...

6:20 you expressed my sentiments exactly. Put a silver stake thru the baby vampire squid's heart on Tuesday!

Anonymous said...

Mary Catherine - thank you for posting the question re: Gary's safety. I was thinking the same thing and thought I had posted it. Gary???

Anonymous said...

eteran political operative and Donald Trump supporter Roger Stone said on Breitbart News Saturday on Sirius/XM Channel 125 that “Republican bosses” in Indiana are trying to stop Donald Trump before Tuesday’s primary:

I find it interesting that any place where the people decide, Donald Trump does great. In fact, he racks up huge numbers. Any place where the bosses decide and the Republican Establishment decides, Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX)
is able to nibble delegates here and nibble delegates there.

I think Trump is going to win Indiana, but the Indiana delegate process is already being done, and right now Donald Trump has one delegate. So the Republican bosses in Indiana are trying to thwart the will of the voters regardless of how they vote in the upcoming primary.

I do think the Trump campaign is back on a solid technological track with targeted television and radio ads. I think you can see the professionalization of the Trump campaign which before was a natural force…It was all based on an incredible model, a communications-based model, that Trump himself was able to generate so much media coverage that it was able to cancel out the massive negative spending against him.

Stone also called Ted Cruz “the ultimate globalist, the Goldman Sachs candidate.”